⚡ August Backtest experimental

North West England (region G) — what each model would have said, against what the auction actually cleared
This is a test page and is not part of any FPRates' daily price calculations.
These are model predictions, not EDF's published rates. This page replays August: for each day, the model was fed only the grid forecast, gas price and demand data that existed at 10:25 that morning, then asked for the days ahead.

Read it as a best case. The models have since been retrained on data that includes August, so they have already seen these outcomes. The live track record on the forecast page is the fairer test, because those predictions were made before the fact.
Showing d+2 predictions across 25 days. 71% of band predictions landed within 2p of the actual rate. Worst miss: 2026-08-29, out by +7.1p.
Day Green
23:00–06:00		Amber (all)
06:00–16:00, 19:00–23:00		Red
16:00–19:00		Amber
06:00–10:00		Amber
10:00–16:00		Amber
19:00–23:00
2026-08-08
23.7p
said 20.3p
-3.5p
12.2p
said 10.6p
-1.6p
31.3p
said 25.6p
-5.7p
17.4p
said 13.0p
-4.4p
0.0p
said 0.0p
+0.0p
27.4p
said 27.2p
-0.2p
2026-08-09
22.2p
said 21.3p
-0.9p
12.8p
said 16.4p
+3.6p
34.5p
said 32.2p
-2.3p
12.0p
said 17.3p
+5.3p
3.3p
said 8.1p
+4.8p
27.9p
said 28.1p
+0.2p
2026-08-10
22.9p
said 21.7p
-1.2p
23.8p
said 22.4p
-1.4p
36.9p
said 35.9p
-1.0p
24.3p
said 22.3p
-2.0p
18.9p
said 17.3p
-1.6p
30.7p
said 30.2p
-0.5p
2026-08-11
23.5p
said 22.6p
-0.9p
23.7p
said 22.3p
-1.3p
36.9p
said 35.9p
-1.0p
25.4p
said 23.4p
-2.0p
18.9p
said 17.1p
-1.8p
29.2p
said 29.2p
-0.0p
2026-08-12
24.3p
said 23.9p
-0.4p
25.0p
said 25.8p
+0.7p
44.0p
said 42.5p
-1.4p
25.0p
said 25.6p
+0.6p
17.3p
said 19.8p
+2.5p
36.7p
said 34.9p
-1.8p
2026-08-13
25.7p
said 24.5p
-1.2p
29.3p
said 27.6p
-1.7p
50.0p
said 46.5p
-3.5p
27.7p
said 26.1p
-1.5p
21.7p
said 21.0p
-0.7p
42.3p
said 39.0p
-3.4p
2026-08-14
26.2p
said 25.2p
-1.0p
27.8p
said 26.6p
-1.2p
46.8p
said 41.8p
-4.9p
25.8p
said 27.1p
+1.3p
21.6p
said 22.5p
+0.9p
39.2p
said 32.2p
-6.9p
2026-08-15
26.6p
said 25.2p
-1.4p
21.8p
said 23.8p
+2.1p
38.7p
said 38.5p
-0.1p
22.4p
said 23.1p
+0.7p
15.0p
said 19.7p
+4.7p
31.3p
said 30.8p
-0.5p
2026-08-16
26.8p
said 26.8p
+0.0p
26.2p
said 25.6p
-0.6p
40.9p
said 41.0p
+0.1p
24.4p
said 24.3p
-0.1p
22.5p
said 21.7p
-0.9p
33.5p
said 32.9p
-0.6p
2026-08-17
28.9p
said 27.4p
-1.5p
30.8p
said 29.7p
-1.1p
44.8p
said 44.4p
-0.4p
31.9p
said 30.5p
-1.4p
26.9p
said 25.9p
-1.0p
35.3p
said 34.5p
-0.8p
2026-08-18
25.7p
said 26.2p
+0.5p
27.3p
said 27.0p
-0.3p
41.9p
said 41.0p
-0.9p
28.5p
said 28.6p
+0.1p
23.2p
said 21.7p
-1.5p
32.3p
said 33.3p
+1.0p
2026-08-19
26.0p
said 26.0p
-0.0p
28.1p
said 27.5p
-0.5p
43.8p
said 41.7p
-2.1p
28.9p
said 28.4p
-0.5p
22.9p
said 23.3p
+0.4p
34.9p
said 33.0p
-1.9p
2026-08-20
26.9p
said 26.1p
-0.8p
27.3p
said 28.2p
+0.9p
42.0p
said 41.8p
-0.1p
28.8p
said 29.2p
+0.4p
22.5p
said 24.8p
+2.3p
33.0p
said 32.3p
-0.6p
2026-08-21
26.9p
said 26.3p
-0.6p
28.1p
said 27.1p
-1.1p
41.4p
said 41.3p
-0.1p
29.7p
said 27.1p
-2.6p
24.0p
said 23.6p
-0.4p
32.8p
said 32.3p
-0.6p
2026-08-22
26.3p
said 25.8p
-0.5p
21.3p
said 24.2p
+2.9p
39.1p
said 40.3p
+1.2p
20.4p
said 21.2p
+0.8p
15.7p
said 20.6p
+4.8p
30.6p
said 32.6p
+2.1p
2026-08-23
25.4p
said 27.4p
+2.0p
25.7p
said 25.9p
+0.1p
42.2p
said 42.2p
-0.0p
23.9p
said 23.9p
-0.0p
22.8p
said 21.8p
-1.0p
32.0p
said 33.9p
+1.9p
2026-08-24
26.8p
said 27.3p
+0.4p
27.8p
said 28.7p
+0.9p
42.5p
said 43.4p
+0.9p
30.6p
said 30.1p
-0.5p
23.7p
said 24.3p
+0.7p
31.1p
said 33.7p
+2.6p
2026-08-25
25.9p
said 26.0p
+0.1p
23.7p
said 26.7p
+2.9p
42.0p
said 42.8p
+0.8p
27.4p
said 29.0p
+1.6p
16.6p
said 20.5p
+3.9p
30.9p
said 33.6p
+2.7p
2026-08-26
26.1p
said 26.9p
+0.8p
28.1p
said 30.1p
+2.0p
44.4p
said 44.8p
+0.4p
30.6p
said 30.8p
+0.2p
24.1p
said 25.8p
+1.7p
31.5p
said 35.9p
+4.4p
2026-08-27
23.6p
said 26.6p
+3.0p
28.4p
said 30.0p
+1.6p
43.7p
said 44.0p
+0.3p
29.0p
said 30.5p
+1.4p
25.7p
said 26.4p
+0.7p
31.7p
said 34.9p
+3.3p
2026-08-29
17.9p
said 25.0p
+7.1p
27.3p
said 27.4p
+0.1p
44.1p
said 42.4p
-1.6p
22.3p
said 25.5p
+3.2p
28.5p
said 25.5p
-3.0p
30.5p
said 32.1p
+1.6p
2026-08-30
23.4p
said 28.2p
+4.8p
26.2p
said 28.2p
+2.0p
40.6p
said 43.7p
+3.0p
25.2p
said 26.2p
+1.0p
23.7p
said 26.1p
+2.4p
30.9p
said 33.4p
+2.5p
2026-08-31
24.0p
said 25.2p
+1.3p
13.7p
said 17.6p
+3.9p
36.3p
said 34.5p
-1.8p
19.9p
said 22.7p
+2.8p
0.0p
said 4.8p
+4.8p
31.0p
said 31.8p
+0.8p
2026-09-01
26.7p
said 25.9p
-0.8p
23.3p
said 25.0p
+1.6p
42.5p
said 41.8p
-0.7p
29.1p
said 28.8p
-0.2p
11.3p
said 16.5p
+5.2p
35.6p
said 33.8p
-1.9p
2026-09-02
27.6p
said 27.6p
-0.0p
30.4p
said 30.5p
+0.1p
46.8p
said 44.8p
-2.0p
33.1p
said 33.6p
+0.5p
25.9p
said 26.5p
+0.5p
34.3p
said 33.5p
-0.8p